some views on Kashmir

(slightly long)
Been reading about the BJP tamasha over flag hoisting at Kashmir. There’s a pretty good post about it on Greatbong.

Unfortunately, this is just one more incident in a long series which is unlikely to have any end in the near future. That is why I am going to stick my neck out and say – “If a majority of the Kashmiris do not want to be part of India, let Kashmir go! Let them be independent”

Why are we in Kashmir in the first place? Apologies for the history lesson but as most of us will remember, about 600 independent princely states were made part of India by Sardar Patel in a short time. In most cases it was critical as they would have created enclaves within the country and made things very difficult. However, if I remember my maps correctly, in 2 cases – Travancore and J&K – it would not have created territorial issues. They could have been independent states not completely bordered by India – Travancore would have had a sea coast and J&K, a border with Pakistan. They could have been independent countries without affecting India much. Travancore acceded on its own but we needed a military issue to force Hari Singh to sign over to us – albeit one initiated by Pakistan.

And why did that happen? Why did we want to get into J&K? I was reading a book by Ramchandra Guha about modern India in which he says that initially Patel was not very keen on getting Kashmir to accede. However, at some point, Jinnah extended a hand to Junagadh to join Pakistan – which only had a direct sea link to Pakistan- merely since the ruler was Muslim. The Junagadh issue played out on its own timelines. But Jinnah’s invite irked Patel enough to feel that if Pakistan felt having a Muslim ruler was enough to join Pakistan, then a Hindu Hari Singh was reason enough for J&K being part of India. When Hari Singh did ask for help, Patel was ready to give it as long as it acceded to India.

As I said, I got this in a book by Ramchandra Guha and I am willing to go with this for now. The moot point to me is that there was no real strategic reason for us to be in Kashmir. If India’s northern border had been with Pakistan in Punjab and with J&K in Punjab and HP, life would not have been disastrous. Nonetheless, we went in and today J&K is a part of India.

So, should it remain as such? Well, as I said- I see no reason for that – other than the inevitable loss of face. What if J&K were given independence? One possible argument against giving them independence would be that there are just minority elements which create all the hoo-haa and we would be playing into the hands of extremists by succumbing to them. A fair point. And to that, I would say, then let’s have a referendum in J&K- do you want to stay with India or not? If the majority says yes, that itself would be a great help in managing the extremist elements in the state. If the majority says no, then let them go.

Would we really want to be in a position of forcefully staying somewhere when the locals do not want us? Is that any different from the British being here in the early 20th century? If the majority of people in Jammu and Kashmir do not want us, we shouldn’t be there.

There will be a number of arguments against this thought. Let’s look at some of them which might come up

1. Majority! What majority – there are no Kashmiri pundits left now so any majority is a false majority

Yes, there are no Kashmiri pundits left. And I agree that if they were there, then the chances of a yes vote would have been much higher.
But the fact that the Kashmiri pundits are not in the valley anymore, while tragic is nonetheless a reality of the last 20 years. I know 20 years is a short time in the life of a nation but do we really expect this to change? If we have a game plan to flood the valley with pro Indians and change the demographics in our favour…and live with a bit of unrest while it happens, I could go along with that. But there seems to be no such intention. If we are going to have to deal with the current population of J&K, then deal with them now.

2. But Jammu and Ladakh might want to be with India while Kashmir doesn’t

Fair enough, perhaps the referendum can be held in each of the 3 regions separately. Could be tricky, especially if the entire state comes out as “no” but these regions come out as “yes”. But can be handled, I think.

3. Why do we always give “special status” to J&K? First, Article 370 and now a special referendum. Who do they think they are?

To an extent, that is fair. However, one must admit that J&K is slightly different from the rest of the country. But, if that is still an issue, go ahead – have the referendum in all the states. I am fairly certain that apart from J&K and just perhaps Nagaland, you are going to get an overwhelming yes.

4. Are you really sure of that? There is a good chance that vast areas of the country will want to secede. You could be balkanizing India!

I honestly do not think that would happen. The advantages of staying in India vastly outweigh “going it alone” in almost all cases. Even in J&K, if one could get away from the rhetoric, I think the locals would find that they would be better off within India than outside.
But, if the reality is that vast parts of India do want to secede, then it will eventually happen. If Balkanization of India is wanted by its people, it will happen. If we do it by a referendum it will be more peaceful. Else, it will be bloody, long drawn out and painful. But it will happen if that is what is desired. And if every second state actually wants independence, then we are not really India, are we? For what are we continuing with the farce?
But I am fairly sure it will not happen- because I do not think that such a ground swell exists.

5. But Kashmir could go and join Pakistan

Let them! If that’s what they want to do, let them. What are we worried about? That we will have a “Muslim led enemy” at our borders which would be against our “Hindu rashtra”. News for all of you –we already have that situation!

6. We can’t let Kashmir go, it would be a vindication of the 2 nation theory – since Kashmir is the only Muslim majority state in India

The 2 nation theory died when Bangladesh separated from Pakistan. It showed that language could override religion in some cases.
Let’s also not forget that perhaps the best counter to the 2 nation theory is that for 60 years, more Muslims have lived in India than they have in Pakistan, so this is really not major, in my mind at least.
However, even if we do not accept that, should we foist ourselves on a set of people (those of Kashmir) when they want to be independent; just to prove Jinnah wrong – that would be stupid!

7. We can’t let Kashmir go, after all the sacrifice of our armed forces, our police and even politicians

I am not belittling the work done by these people. But the point still remains that if the people of J&K do not wish to be part of India then why force them to be. Why have more of your armed forces and police keep making sacrifices for a people who don’t want to be part of you.
And the sacrifice of the forces does not reduce nor does their lustre get diminished by this – that doesn’t happen even if you are routed. The Light Brigade is still remembered for its bravery, though they were massacred. The lives of Indian soldiers lost in the ’62 war were not in vain – they died defending their nation and that counts- even though we lost the war. Similarly, the sacrifices of our people will be remembered but we need to move ahead.

8. We can’t let Kashmir go, that would be a loss of face after maintaining for 60 years that it is an integral part of India

It is difficult to argue with what is ultimately an ego issue. The only point I can make is that as an integral part of India we can give them the right to choose if they wanted to be with India. If they choose not to be, we should honour their desire to be so
I realize that this argument gives every crackpot the right to want to leave. Tomorrow, I could decide that I will secede my bedroom from India! But such cases are likely to be facetious and need not be taken genuinely. And if the whole of India goes into the referendum, we will know either way.

9. Pakistan/Terrorist organizations would rig any such referendum and make it vote for independence

The state remains Indian till we choose to free it. Any blatantly unfair elections need not be binding on us. And, indeed any such actions, in view of the world media would only help India, not make it any worse.

I am sure there are many more arguments but to me the bottom line remains that if the Kashmiris want independence, we are fooling ourselves into believing that we can keep them with us. We are spending a huge amount of resources and are achieving precious little. And unlike, say British rule of India, we are, correctly, not even exploiting the state. What’s the point! If the majority of the people there want to be with us, there is still some reason for supporting your people. But if not, it is futile. Ask them if they want to be independent. If they don’t, use that information effectively in diplomatic and non diplomatic efforts. If they do, give it to them!